No 1 (2021) Technical mechanics
Technical mechanics, 2021, 1, 51 - 62
Models of space object motion based on time series of TLE-elements
Sarychev O. P., Perviy B. A.
Sarychev O. P.
Timely detection of changes in the characteristics of space hardware objects during their long-term
operation is one of the main tasks in the development and study of onboard systems that maintain
the efficiency of their operation. This paper presents a statistical method for simulating the
motion of space objects (spacecraft and used launch vehicle stages) in the class of autoregressive
models. The method allows one to improve the quality of description and prediction of the motion
of space objects based on simulating time series of their TLE-elements (two-line orbital element
sets). The purpose of this work is to increase the accuracy of mathematical models of the observed
motion of space objects in the problems of deorbit time determination, satellite collision
prediction, and space debris cataloging. The paper presents a system for simulating the motion
of space objects, which allows one to determine an optimal amount of learning samples in simulating
time series of TLE elements, determine the order of autoregression and find an optimal model
structure for each variable element, identify model parameters in conditions of unequally spaced
observations, identify features of the time behavior of the root-mean-square errors of the
constructed autoregressive models on the basis of dividing the initial time series of TLE-elements
into successive learning intervals, and obtain predictive estimates of the values of variable
elements. The proposed statistical method of space object motion simulation can be recommended
to describe and predict the motion of spacecraft and used launch vehicle stages represented
as time series of TLE-elements (which are publicly available and regularly updated). The
application of the proposed statistical method will increase the accuracy of mathematical models
of the observed motion of space objects in the problems of deorbit time determination, satellite
collision prediction, and space debris cataloging.
time series of TLE elements, unequally spaced observations, autoregressive models, beta distribution, structural uncertainty, group method of data handling
1. Perez I., San-Juan J. F., San-Martin M., Lopez-Ochoa L. M. Application of computational intelligence in order to develop hybrid orbit propagation methods. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2013. V.2013. Article ID 631628. 11 pp. URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/631628. (Last accessed on March 20, 2020).
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