TECHNICAL MECHANICS
ISSN (Print): 1561-9184, ISSN (Online): 2616-6380

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UDC 629.78

Technical mechanics, 2018, 1, 84 - 96

ON A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SPACE HARDWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS (PART I)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/itm2018.01.084

Alpatov A. P., Marchenko V. T., Khorolskyi P. P., Sazina N. P., Zhukova L. H.

Alpatov A. P.
Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine
Ukraine

Marchenko V. T.
Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine
Ukraine

Khorolskyi P. P.
Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine
Ukraine

Sazina N. P.
Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine
Ukraine

Zhukova L. H.
Institute of Technical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine
Ukraine

      The aim of this work is to construct a theoretical basis for the development of methods, algorithms, and software for quantitative assessment of new space hardware development project risks that are due to uncertainty factors. The presented methodological approach to quantitative risk assessment is a synthesis of mathematical uncertainty modeling and simulation modeling, the former being constructed on the basis of the fuzzy set theory, the possibility theory, and time series forecasting methods.
      This part of the paper (Part I) presents a general theory for quantitative assessment of space hardware devel-opment project risks and theoretical basics for retrospective source data uncertainty modeling by counterpart products.
      A practical implementation of the presented results will make it possible to significantly improve the quality of the feasibility study of new home space hardware development projects.

explosion, droplet cloud, droplet, propellant component, launch vehicle

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/itm2018.01.084

Copyright (©) 2018 Alpatov A. P., Marchenko V. T., Khorolskyi P. P., Sazina N. P., Zhukova L. H.

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